And The Oscar Goes To... Who Will Win & Who Should Win
Who have you got?
The 92nd Academy Awards are looming, on Monday morning local time, waiting to provide countless reaction gifs for the year ahead (clap, Nicole, clap!). This year’s Oscars find a handful of films hoarding the nominations: Joker has 11, and Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood, The Irishman, and 1917 all have ten. For those hoping for the unexpected, Bong Joon-ho’s brilliant Parasite somehow has six nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. But the Oscars are, envelope mix-ups aside, rarely about the unexpected. So, then, here’s what to expect when you’re expecting (to watch the 2020 Oscars)...
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood, Parasite
Who will win? 1917
Who we think should win? Parasite
Since the Academy Awards expanded the Best Picture category, in 2009, to include ‘up to’ 10 films, that’s made for a lot of also-rans each year. So, let’s start with the easiest part of any coach’s job: the cuts!
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Ford v Ferrari, crowdpleasin’ dad-move par excellence, nominated in no other major category? No chance. Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi’s weird-but-not-good-weird, Hitler-as-imaginary-friend, coming-of-age Third Reich comedy? No sir. Little Women, Greta Gerwig’s beautiful, beloved, boffo-box-office retelling of an oft-told tale? Nah b. Marriage Story’s excellent, empathetic, emotionally-taxing take on divorce, obviously penned from a painful personal place by Noah Baumbach? Sadly not. Martin Scorsese’s endless, oft-tedious, Uncanny Valley-dwelling tale of gangsters (and mafia movies) turning geriatric? You may’ve inspired me to say “oh yes, that crippled Irishman!” several hundred times this past year, but, like, GTFO. Oh, and, speaking of Scorsese: Todd Phillips’ shameless plundering of old Scorsese movies in Joker’s artful, moral-panic-inspiring portrait of lone white male comic book vigilantism? Defz not.
This leads us to three legit possibilities. Parasite is the most unlikely Oscar contender in aeons; somehow the first ever Korean film to get any Academy Award nomination, it’s a wholly foreign film — a black comic satire of social stratification in contemporary Korea — riding a groundswell of critical acclaim, audience adulation, Jessica Only Child Illinois Chicago memedom, and a historic SAG Best Ensemble win to become a genuine Best Picture dark horse. It’s up against Tarantino’s great Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood, in which the auteur once again rewrites a dark chapter in American history. Either one of them would be worthy winners.
But, think about that for a second: how often is the Best Picture Oscar given to a worthy winner? I mean, the 2010s found wins for Green Book, The Shape Of Water, Argo, The Artist, and The King’s Speech; movies that appeared on absolutely no one’s Best Films Of The Decade lists. All of which is to say, 1917 — a mediocre war movie turned logistical spectacle via being staged as a digitally assembled mock one shot — feels like the most Oscar-ish film of the bunch. Consider it the front runner.
Best Director
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite, Sam Mendes – 1917, Todd Phillips – Joker, Martin Scorsese – The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
Who will win? Sam Mendes – 1917
Who we think should win? Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
How’s this for the suspense killing: 15 of the last 16 DGA Outstanding Direction winners went on to win the Best Director Oscar. This year Sam Mendes won. It was his second ever DGA win, following American Beauty (lulz) in 2000. Mendes went on to win the Oscar, too, for American Beauty (lulz) in 2000. Mendes will go on to win the Oscar, here, for 1917, in 2020, too. You can see why: the war movie’s fake single shot is a grand marriage between old fashioned practical filmmaking and after the fact digital effects; the work of a production whose vast crew is all working in harmony, captained by a sure hand.
Scorsese’s nomination for The Irishman is his ninth Best Director appearance; though he’s only won once, for The Departed. It’s hard for me to imagine anyone could give an award to a filmmaker who staged a scene as bad as this one, where the supposedly ‘30-year-old’ Robert De Niro issues the thrashing of a lifetime, only he looks like a 70-year-old trying not to fall over and break his hip. Phillips, as mentioned above, essentially just impersonates old Scorsese movies (Taxi Driver, The King Of Comedy), which is fine if you’re making an arty comic book movie, but, like, Best Director? Really? Tarantino’s direction in Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood, though, is gold: his camera sliding and gliding as his narrative drives this way and that, picking up and following people (and cars) as they tool about his sun-kissed, smog-riddled, advertising-saturated 1969 Los Angeles. But the best work in this Best Director category is by director Bong, who stages a masterclass in composition and transition in Parasite. In an awesome alternate reality, he would win. In this reality, it’ll have to just be an honour to even be nominated.
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory, Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood, Adam Driver – Marriage Story, Joaquin Phoenix – Joker, Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
Who will win? Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Who we think should win? Adam Driver – Marriage Story
When we reviewed Joker back in October, our headline writers got a little randy and proclaimed: “Meet ‘Joker’ - The Comic Book Film That Is Going To Sweep Oscars Season”. 11 nominations later, it’s looking none-too-shabby a claim, even if it’s not set to pull a Titanic and actually sweep the night. What was sure then — when ol’ Film Carewz said he “felt like an Oscar lock”— now, and come Monday, is that Joaquin Phoenix is going to win the Best Actor Oscar. He’s already won the Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, and seemingly been so sure of his wins that he’s come prepared with gauntlet-throwing speeches to deliver.
Can anyone else win? Nah, not really. But does anyone else deserve to win? Well, once you throw out Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes, all smirking insincerity in a pretty shitty movie, the other contenders are legit. Leo is great in Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood, in all its meta glory: when he berates himself, in the privacy of his trailer, for fucking up previous takes, there’s layers of comedy; as is when a pint sized co-star says, after he nails a take, “that was the best acting I’ve ever seen in my whole life”. There’s meta layers, too, in Pain & Glory, where Banderas stars as stand-in for Pedro Almódovar, delivering a performance of weariness, whimsy, and winsome memory. Then there’s Driver, who, when not stuck starring in the worst Star Wars movie since Jar-Jar Binks was on the loose, used 2019 to further his case that he’s one of our greatest young screen actors.
That doesn’t mean he’s a chance of toppling Phoenix, but, if he did, he’d be a most worthy winner.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet, Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story, Saoirse Ronan – Little Women, Charlize Theron – Bombshell, Renée Zellweger – Judy
Who will win? Renée Zellweger – Judy
Who we think should win? Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
When Judy opened in local cinemas in October, your old pal Film Carew wrote, “you may as well just hand Zellweger the Oscar now”. Nothing in the subsequent months has done anything to dim that proclamation one iota. She’s won a BAFTA, a SAG, and a Golden Globe, and a Best Actress win feels all but inevitable, the end of one awards season long coronation. Playing Judy Garland in her waning, wasted years, Zellweger delivers a grandstanding, to the hilt turn in one of the Academy’s most favoured modes: playing a former film star.
But, part of the reason Zellweger has become such an unbackable favourite is the lack of another true contender. Erivo does yeoman’s work in a terrible, telemovie-esque feature. Ronan, great as she is, too often plays third fiddle to Florence Pugh and Timothée Chalamet in Little Women. Theron is, as ever, incredible in Bombshell, not just aping Fox News pundit Megyn Kelly, but seemingly tunnelling into her; though there’s zero buzz for her chances of actually winning. If there’s one person with any hope of derailing the Zellweger express, it’s Johansson. Scar-Jo is having quite a year: after appearing in the biggest movie in this history of recorded time, she’s gone on to become the first actor since Cate Blanchett, in 2007, to get nominated twice in the same year. And her work in Marriage Story is sterling, full of ache and acceptance, gestures both big and small. A win would be well earned. But exceedingly unlikely.
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes, Al Pacino – The Irishman, Joe Pesci – The Irishman, Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
Who will win? Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
Who we think should win? Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
Hanks is 63. Hopkins is 82. Pacino is 79. Pesci is 76. Pitt — that whippersnapper! — is 56. A satirist looking to mock the Oscars’ perennial celebration of old, white men could hardly have come up with a better slate than the Best Support Actor cat, which boasts an average age of 71. In a victory for, um, ‘youth’, though, Pitt is the clear frontrunner: he’s already won a Golden Globe, a SAG, and a BAFTA for his magnetic, movie star charisma-flaunting turn in Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood. A win here would also mark a career achievement statue for Pitt: though he’s won a Best Picture Oscar as producer (for 12 Years A Slave), he’s lost in his three previous acting nominations (for 12 Monkeys, The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, and Moneyball).
The other ‘vets’ in the category are all Academy Award winners; though those wins were way back in the early 1990s. Hanks has two Oscars (for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump); and, in different year, his expert mimickry of Fred Rogers in A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood could’ve scored him another. Hopkins won for Silence Of The Lambs in 1992; and, though he’s no chance of winning for his comic pizza eating work in the pretty bad The Two Popes, he could be back at the Oscars, in 2021, for his already-acclaimed titular turn in Florian Zeller’s The Father. Pesci won an Oscar for Goodfellas; his nomination, here, is his third, all of them for performances in Scorsese pictures. And, in a historical embarrassment, Pacino won for his awful Hoo-ah! turn in Scent Of A Woman. It was ground zero for all future terrible Al Pacino impersonations, which is notable, given that Pacino’s performance in The Irishman was like someone doing a terrible Al Pacino impersonation.
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell, Laura Dern – Marriage Story, Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit, Florence Pugh – Little Women, Margot Robbie – Bombshell
Who will win? Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Who we think should win? Florence Pugh – Little Women
Laura Dern is the best. She’s been David Lynch’s muse and a Jurassic Park icon, played Amy Jellicoe in Enlightened (one of the most underrated TV series of the past decade), made out with Baron Davis, and pissed off a generation of toxic Star Wars manboy fanbois with her fleeting The Last Jedi turn. And now here she is, beating out her own Little Women performance with her Marriage Story performance, which has already won her a Golden Globe, a SAG, and a BAFTA. Bates does great downtrodden-with-a-big-emotional-public-speech work in Richard Jewell, Scar-Jo manages to convey suffering and sincerity whilst speaking in a sketch comic German accent in Jojo Rabbit, and Neighbours alumnus Margot Robbie is fast becoming one of Hollywood’s most interesting actors, her performance in Bombshell full of unexpected complexities and layers. All that said: Dern is gonna win.
But, counterpoint: good lord, Florence Pugh! 2019 was the year of Flo. Coming into the year fresh off an incredible leading turn in The Little Drummer Girl, a mini-series entirely directed by Park Chan-motherfuckin’-wook, Pugh proceeded to wrestle with The Rock in Fighting With My Family, inspire countless hipster Halloween costumes in Ari Aster’s awesome Midsommar, then give a force of nature turn in Little Women. For all Greta Gerwig’s radical rewriting of Louisa May Alcott’s source text, perhaps no transformation in the adaptation was so profound as Pugh turning Amy March from everyone’s least favourite to most favourite March sister.
The 2020 Academy Awards take place at LA's Dolby Theatre from midday on Monday 10 February (Australian time). See the full list of nominees here.
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