Who Will Win Big At The ARIAs? Here's Our Predictions

There's just one day left until the 2017 ARIA awards. We've taken a tally around the office and here's who we think will be walking away with an arm full of trophies tomorrow night.

Flume took home eight of the 11 awards he was nominated for last year. So who's gonna hog the ARIA Awards winner's podium in 2017? 

Will Gang Of Youths, who lead the charge this year with a whopping eight ARIA Award nominations, take home the most shiny, pointy trophies? After all, the Sydney indie rockers have already collected Best Producer (Gang Of Youths/Adrian Breakspear) for their ARIA Albums Chart-topping Go Farther In Lightness.

Or is it the incredibly prolific and much-loved songwriter Paul Kelly's year? He's up for seven gongs and has already collected two - Best Engineer (Steven Schram) and Best Cover Art (Peter Salmon-Lomas) - for his stunning Life Is Fine set, which also went #1 on the ARIA Albums Chart.

Let's not forget AB Original, either, who could well continue their winning streak, having already picked up five AIR Awards and multiple NIMAs since the release of their Australian Music Prize-winning Reclaim Australia record (the hip hop duo has been nominated for six ARIAs this year).  

We only correctly predicted five winners out of the 15 categories we covered in 2016; actually, Flume brought it home for us four times (out of the five gongs he collected on the night) and we were correct in foreseeing Violent Soho would dominate one of the two categories in which they were victorious - d'oh! But, then again, maybe 2017 is the year we nail it? 

Apple Music Album Of The Year

AB Original - Reclaim Australia, Amy Shark - Night Thinker, Gang Of Youths - Go Farther In Lightness, Illy - Two Degrees, Paul Kelly - Life Is Fine

The Music predicts: Paul Kelly - Life Is Fine

The last time a debut album took out the Album Of The Year category was in 2011 (Boy & Bear's Moonfire), but we totally get that AB Original's Reclaim Australia is an exceptional artistic statement. Hold up, Amy Shark's Night Thinker is actually a six-track EP, isn't it? Illy usually kills the Urban category, which he won in 2013 for Bring It Back. So we reckon Gang Of Youths are probably the closest contender here for their Go Farther In Lightness set. However, Paul Kelly scored his first-ever #1 on the ARIA Albums Chart with Life Is Fine, which made everyone scratch their heads in bewilderment because Kelly's released a colossal 23 albums over his illustrious 36-year career. So, therefore, we collectively reckon Kelly's gonna take this one home.

Best Male Artist

DD Dumbo - Utopia Defeated, Dan Sultan - Killer, Illy - Two Degrees, Paul Kelly - Life Is Fine, Vance Joy - Lay It On Me

The Music predicts: Paul Kelly - Life Is Fine

Most of the blokes nominated in this category have already collected one of these gongs. Paul Kelly already has two in the trophy cabinet; Dan Sultan and Vance Joy each have one. Joy is nominated on the strength of a single anyway, so we feel he can wait in line until he releases another album. Illy and DD Dumbo both released stunning albums this year, but something tells us it's Kelly's year to scoop the pool - he better start dusting and making room for a slew of new trophy additions on his shelves.

Best Female Artist

Amy Shark - Night Thinker, Jessica Mauboy - The Secret Daughter: Songs From The Original TV Series, Julia Jacklin - Don't Let The Kids Win, Meg Mac - Low Blows, Sia - The Greatest (feat Kendrick Lamar)

The Music predicts: Amy Shark - Night Thinker

A former winner in this category, Jessica Mauboy (who collected her trophy in 2013 for To The End Of The Earth) is this time nominated for a soundtrack, which is a compilation of covers. Mauboy has received ARIA nominations in various categories for seven years on the trot now so has gotta be pretty stoked about that. Two-time Best Female Artist winner Sia - This Is Acting (2016) and 1000 Forms Of Fear (2014) - is nominated for a single in 2017, so we reckon this is such a strong list of contenders that the accolade will surely be directed elsewhere. Out of the ridiculously strong pool of contenders that remain - Meg Mac, Julia Jacklin and Amy Shark - the latter two have probably achieved more international success at this point. It's a tough category to call, but our hot tip is Amy Shark.

Best Dance Release

Dom Dolla & Torren Foot - Be Randy, Jagwar Ma - Every Now & Then, Peking Duk - Stranger (feat Elliphant), Pnau - Chameleon, The Kite String Tangle - The Kite String Tangle

The Music predicts: Jagwar Ma - Every Now & Then

Fun fact: out of the 21 years this Best Dance Release ARIA Award has been up for grabs, it's been won more times for a single (11 times) than for an album (ten times). Peking Duk took home a pointy statuette for High (feat Nicole Millar) in 2014 and Pnau won way back in 2000 for Sambanova. But we totally feel it's Jagwar Ma's turn given the consistent quality of their output, the success they're experiencing far and wide, and the fact that we regularly lose our shit while listening to their special brand of psychedelic dance music that makes us wanna don a bucket hat and dance like Bez from Happy Mondays.

Best Group

AB Original - Reclaim Australia, Gang Of Youths - Go Farther In Lightness, King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard - Flying Microtonal Banana, Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds - Skeleton Tree, Peking Duk - Stranger (feat Elliphant)

The Music predicts: AB Original - Reclaim Australia

Remarkably, none of the 2017 Best Group nominees have already been victorious in this category. And it's a pretty pukka list, it has to be said! In terms of killer years, 2017 has been particularly noteworthy for King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard and Gang Of Youths in terms of continuing to nurture and build strong overseas followings (particularly King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard, whose Murder Of The Universe album debuted on eight Billboard charts, topping the poll on the Heatseekers Albums chart). But AB Original actually started a national conversation with their 26 January single (feat Dan Sultan) so we'd put out money (if we had any) on Briggsy and Trials for Best Group.

Breakthrough Artist

AB Original - Reclaim Australia, Amy Shark - Night Thinker, Dean Lewis - Waves, Tash Sultana - Notion, Tkay Maidza - TKAY

The Music predicts: Tash Sultana - Notion

We're pretty delighted to note that there are more female previous winners in this category than males, so we'll just have to see whether this trend continues in 2017. From this magnificent list of contenders, The Music staff unanimously reckon Tash Sultana will take home the Breakthrough Artist gong in 2017. With her relentless international and national touring schedule plus a much-lauded US TV debut on Late Night With Seth Meyers (nailed it!), Sultana has well and truly broken through, actually, she's completely smashed it! Do you think a few more accolades might make Sultana rethink that hiatus she's threatening? Sure hope so.

Best Pop Release

Amy Shark - Night Thinker, Dean Lewis - Waves, Jessica Mauboy - Fallin, Sia - The Greatest (feat Kendrick Lamar), Vera Blue - Perennial

The Music predicts: Amy Shark - Night Thinker

Four out of the five Best Pop Release nominees are female - just sayin'. Sia's already got two Best Pop Release wins, The Music's staff were pretty divided on this one, with votes cast in many different directions, but historically this award goes to an artist who's had a mammoth hit that you just can't escape (see: Gotye's Somebody That I Used To Know feat Kimbra). So, in that case, it would have to go to Amy Shark, because you couldn't go anywhere, locally or internationally, without hearing her aching Adore number playing poignantly in the distance.

Best Urban Album

AB Original - Reclaim Australia, Illy - Two Degrees, REMI - Divas & Demons, Thundamentals - Everyone We Know, Tkay Maidza - TKAY

The Music predicts: AB Original - Reclaim Australia

Illy's already got one of these stashed at home somewhere and as much as we've had REMI's Divas & Demons on high rotation since its release, think Tkay Maidza is a deadset star, believe Thundamentals bring something so playful and irresistible to our hip hop scene and totally rate Illy, the power of AB Original can't be denied. Prepare for Briggsy to take to the winner's podium together with his mate Trials multiple times on this night.

Best Independent Release

AB Original - Reclaim Australia, Dan Sultan - Killer, Sia - The Greatest (feat Kendrick Lamar), Tash Sultana - Notion, Vance Joy - Lay It On Me

The Music predicts: AB Original - Reclaim Australia

Sia's We Are Born was awarded Best Independent Release in 2010, but she's up for a single release this year. So has an artist ever taken home the Best Independent Release trophy on the strength of a single? 1200 Techniques did for Karma (What Goes Around Comes Around) in 2002, as did S2S in 2000 for Sister and TISM for I'm Interested In Apathy. Ok, so it has happened, but team The Music still agree this one belongs to the mighty AB Original for Reclaim Australia in 2017.

Best Rock Album

Dan Sultan - Killer, Dune Rats - The Kids Will Know It's Bullshit, Gang Of Youths - Go Farther In Lightness, Polish Club - Alrighty Alrighty, The Preatures - Girlhood

The Music predicts: Gang Of Youths - Go Farther In Lightness

Polish Club have gotta be chuffed to see their debut Alrighty Alrighty set sitting among this strong list of contenders, which is dominated by second albums (everyone else on this list except for Dan Sultan: Killer is his fourth record). Sultan's Blackbird was victorious in this category in 2014, so we reckon it's time to share the love around and unanimously put forward Go Farther In Lightness by Gang Of Youths as 2017's Best Rock Album winner. You can absolutely feel how much of David Le'aupepe's wounded soul was poured into the making of their latest effort.

Best Adult Contemporary Album

Bernard Fanning - Brutal Dawn, DD Dumbo - Utopia Defeated, Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds - Skeleton Tree, Paul Kelly - Life Is Fine, Pete Murray - Camacho

The Music predicts: Paul Kelly - Life Is Fine

We're pretty sure DD Dumbo wouldn't be filed in the Adult Contemporary section of any record store, but Pete Murray we can cop. Bernard Fanning took this category out last year (Civil Dusk) and Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds have already collected one for Push The Sky Away. Paul Kelly has been called upon to deliver two Best Adult Contemporary Album acceptance speeches (three if you count Goin' Your Way, Kelly's collaborative album with Neil Finn) over the years. But, you know what? We totally think he'll collect this one as well to add to his collection.

Best Country Album

Kasey Chambers - Dragonfly, Lee Kernaghan - The 25th Anniversary Album, O'Shea - 61-615, Shane Nicholson - Love And Blood, The McClymonts - Endless

The Music predicts: Kasey Chambers - Dragonfly

The pressing question here is: has Kasey Chambers ever been nominated in this category and not taken it out? She's taken to the winner's podium for Best Country Album a whopping seven times, and has never been nominated and missed out. In fact, only three of her albums weren't nominated (2006's Carnival; 2009's Kasey Chambers, Poppa Bill & The Little Hillbillies; and 2011's Storybook - her covers album paying respect to musical influences). Not a bad strike rate, huh? Previous two-time winners Lee Kernaghan and The McClymonts, and O'Shea, must be shaking in their cowboy boots. Chambers' ex-husband Shane Nicholson shared two of Chambers' wins with their collaborative Rattlin' Bones (2008) and Wreck & Ruin (2013) sets before taking out this category autonomously in 2015 for Hell Breaks Loose. But, yeah, Chambers is definitely favourite to win (again) here. 

Best Hard Rock/Heavy Metal Album 

Airbourne - Breaking Outta Hell, Frenzal Rhomb - Hi-Vis High Tea, King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard - Murder Of The Universe, Northlane - Mesmer, Sleepmakeswaves - Made Of Breath Only

The Music predicts: Northlane - Mesmer

Probably the least Hard Rock/Heavy Metal contender on the list, King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard's Nonagon Infinity took out this category last year. Northlane's Node was victorious in 2015 and considering the impact their latest Mesmer album had on us when it dropped back in March ("bona fide masterpiece", anyone?) we're tipping they will be called up to the winner's podium once more this year.

Best Blues & Roots Album

All Our Exes Live In Texas - When We Fall, Archie Roach - Let Love Rule, Busby Marou - Postcards From The Shell House, Paul Kelly & Charlie Owen - Death's Dateless Night, Tash Sultana - Notion

The Music predicts: Archie Roach - Let Love Rule

Such a varied collection of artists are up for this one, from relative newcomers Tash Sultana, Busby Marou and All Our Exes Live In Texas right through to established Australian music royalty: Archie Roach and Paul Kelly & Charlie Owen. Traditionally, more established artists collect this one (Russell Morris, CW Stoneking, Jeff Lang, The Audreys and John Butler Trio have all taken home multiple Best Blues & Roots Album awards) so we reckon it could very well be Archie Roach's turn in 2017.