New Study Predicts Music Creators' Revenue To Drop 24% By 2028 Due To Generative AI

A new global economic study has taken a look at just what sort of rick human creators are facing thanks to the rise of generative AI.

According to the study, which was commissioned by CISAC (International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, representing over five million creators) and is the first ever global study measuring the economic impact of AI in the music and audiovisual sectors, the main takeaway is that while generative AI is set to enrich tech companies in the next five years, the incomes of human creators are in peril.

While the market for generative AI music and audiovisual content will rise from €3 billion (AUD$4.8 billion) now to €64 billion (AU$103 billion) in 2028, revenues of these services in the music and audiovisual fields are projected at €9 billion (AU$14.6 billion) in 2028, up from €0.3 billion (AU$0.5 billion) now.

Ultimately, the study predicts that by 2028, music and audiovisual creators will respectively see 24% and 21% of their revnues at risk.

In its conclusion, the study notes that without changes to the regulatory framework, creators will “actually suffer losses on two fronts”, pointing towards lost revenue due to unauthorised use of their works, and the replacement of their traditional revenue streams thanks to the substitution helmed by AI-generated outputs.

In response to the finding, CISAC President and ABBA founding member Björn Ulvaeus claimed that Australia and New Zealand have a “unique opportunity” to “lead the world in shaping policies that safeguard creators in the face of Generative AI”. APRA AMCOS CEO, Dean Ormston ultimately agrees.

“This report lays bare the urgent need for action from governments around the world and echoes the findings of the landmark report in AI and Music that APRA AMCOS released in August,” Ormston notes. “One stark example from this report is that the risk of lost revenue for music creators by 2028 globally is 24%, with our report finding this to be a comparative 23% in Australia and New Zealand in the same time period. 

“Generative AI presents both incredible opportunities and significant risks, but right now, it’s creators who stand to lose the most. Our industry thrives on human creativity. Our songwriters, composers and music publishers are the heart of what makes Australian and New Zealand cultural exports so distinctive.

“We must ensure strong protections for their work, especially Indigenous Cultural and Intellectual Property, so that AI platforms respect protocols and enhances rather than exploits First Nations culture,” he adds. “The Australian and New Zealand Governments need to take the lead and act decisively to protect the livelihoods of creators and the future of our creative industries.”

“Music is the soul of our arts and culture, and it’s heartbreaking to see creators’ work being undervalued and their livelihoods put at risk by unregulated AI,” echoed APRA Chair, Jenny Morris MNZM OAM. “Australia and New Zealand have a unique opportunity to lead by example, ensuring our creators are protected and fairly remunerated.

“Generative AI should not come at the expense of the people who inspire and create the songs that shape our lives,” she added. “We must stand up for the voices of our creators, from First Nations artists to emerging and established songwriters, and push governments to act with urgency to safeguard their futures.”