The ARIAs Are Nearly Here; Here's Who We Think Will Take Out This Year's Awards...

From Amy Shark’s expected clean sweep, to Courtney Barnett turning her nose up at second album syndrome with eight deserved nominations, to the close contest between all the very worth young artists up for Breakthrough Artist, here’s Hannah Story and The Music editorial team’s strong opinions about this year’s ARIA contenders in the major general categories.

Apple Music Album Of The Year

Amy Shark - Love Monster (Wonderlick/Sony Entertainment)
Courtney Barnett - Tell Me How You Really Feel (Milk! Records/Remote Control Records)
Gurrumul - Djarimirri (Child Of The Rainbow) (SFM/MGM)
PNAU - Changa (etcetc Music)
Troye Sivan - Bloom (EMI)

Who will win? Amy Shark

Who should win? Courtney Barnett or Gurrumul

Why? After coming home last year with two ARIAs from six nominations, scoring Breakthrough Artist and Best Pop Release for her EP Night Thinker, it looks like this year is the year of Amy Shark. Out of nine nominations, it seems pretty likely that Shark will leave the ceremony with at least Best Pop Release – if she’s not pipped by Troye Sivan’s Bloom – Best Female Artist and we reckon Apple Album Of The Year. Love Monster is an indie-pop record with plenty of punch and Shark’s got the fan base to back it up, vaulting her up to the top of the ARIA charts earlier this year.

Still, it’s disappointing that she’s up against Courtney Barnett, whose second album Tell Me How You Really Feel is, in our eyes anyway, the Aussie record of the year, a searing garage-rock record that easily stands up next to her debut Sometimes I Sit And Think, And Sometimes I Just Sit, which easily took out Breakthrough Artist, Best Independent Release and Best Female Artist in 2015. If she doesn’t score Album Of The Year this year – which she could still manage – she’s almost definitely nabbing Best Rock Album, even against the strength of Camp Cope’s How To Socialise & Make Friends.

The late Gurrumul should not be underestimated in this category - he’s up for seven awards this ARIAs for Djarimirri, his posthumously released final album, which reached #1 on the ARIA charts. As the highest selling First Nations musician of all time, taking out Album Of The Year would be a fitting way to pay respect to his impressive 30-year career, and he’s already won Best World Music Album. Back in 2008, he took out Best Independent Release and Best World Music Album for his debut self-titled LP, then won the latter category again in 2011 for Rrakala and in 2015 for The Gospel Album. While he was up for Album Of The Year in both 2008 and 2011, he’s never taken out the top prize, and maybe this year it’s finally his time.

While it’s hard to really judge so many diverse artists performing across so many genres against each other, it seems unlikely that PNAU’s tight electro-dance can break through against Gurrumul or Amy Shark. They’re also up for Best Group, which they could take out as a conciliation prize. Unless Alison Wonderland stages a coup, they’ve probably got Best Dance Release in the bag. PNAU have never been up for Album Of The Year before, but their 1999 record Sambanova and the lead single from Changa, last year’s Chameleon, each won Best Dance Release. 

Last of all pop wunderkind Troye Sivan is up for the top gong for the second time, after missing out in 2016 for his 2015 debut Blue Neighbourhood. That year he also was up for Best Male Artist and Best Pop Release but lost both to Flume. He’s fighting against even worthier contenders than the formidable Flume this year, and seeing as he’s up for all three categories again it feels disappointing that he’s only really likely to nab Best Male Artist, and even then would somehow have to beat the worthy Gurrumul. 

Breakthrough Artist

Alex Lahey - I Love You Like A Brother (Nicky Boy Records/Caroline Australia)
Jack River - Sugar Mountain (I OH YOU)
Mojo Juju - Native Tongue (ABC Music/Universal Music Australia)
Odette - To A Stranger (EMI)
Ruel - Dazed & Confused (RCA Records/Sony Music)

Who will win? Mojo Juju

Who should win? Mojo Juju

Why? This is such a strong category, let’s say that upfront. All four of the full-length records vying for Breakthrough Artist are excellent debuts from really powerful young female artists – any of them would be a worthy contender in the Best Female Artist category. 

The most stunning of the albums – which we must stress again are all excellent – is the Mojo Juju record; she’s really a powerhouse and she’s going to do something incredibly interesting over the course of her career considering the quality of Native Tongue. It’s a brilliant record and it should win this category, and could comfortably win Best Female Artist (sorry Amy Shark). 

To be up for Breakthrough Artist you have no ARIA Award history, so all we can say right now is that all of these women are going to be nominated again if these debuts are anything to go off. Jack River’s and Odette’s are indie-pop records that already show off their songwriting prowess and powerful vocals, while Alex Lahey has all the makings of the next big indie/alt-rock star thanks to her seemingly lackadaisical, but actually very tight, pop sensibility. Still, this category is Mojo Juju’s to win.

Best Female Artist 

Alison Wonderland - Awake (EMI)
Amy Shark - Love Monster (Wonderlick Recording Company)
Courtney Barnett - Tell Me How You Really Feel (Milk! Records/Remote Control Records)
Sia - Flames (What A Music Ltd, Under Exclusive Licence to Warner Music Group)
Tash Sultana - Flow State (Lonely Lands Records/Sony Music)

Who will win? Amy Shark

Who should win? Courtney Barnett

Why? With the most noms of any artist this year, Amy Shark seems likely to take a sweep of her categories. If you’re gonna give someone Album Of The Year, it only makes sense that they’re also the Best Female Artist. Still she’s up against Courtney Barnett, whose record is worthy of taking out either category. 

The pair of frontrunners are up against a Sia single, which honestly should not win - the collab with David Guetta isn’t even up for Best Dance Release. Still, it seems like it’s simply tradition to nominate Sia for Best Female Artist if there’s anything that can be shoehorned in, whether its a single or a full-length - she’s been up for the award every year since 2014, and actually won three out of four times, first in 2014 for 1000 Forms Of Fear - which also deservedly walked away with Album Of The Year - then in 2016 for This Is Acting, and finally last year for single The Greatest. 

It’s unlikely this will be the year Alison Wonderland wins her first ARIA - she was up for Best Dance Release back in 2015 for her debut Run, but lost out to RÜFÜS. It’s entirely possible she’ll lose out to the rebranded old foe, RÜFÜS DU SOL in the Dance category again, and her record simply isn’t the strongest in the very competitive Best Female Artist field. 

Last year Tash Sultana was nominated for but lost Breakthrough Artist, Best Blues And Roots Album and Best Independent Release for their 2016 EP, Notion. They're now up for both Best Female Artist and Best Blues And Roots Album, but it seems unlikely they'll be able to beat out Shark’s stellar debut. Still, they definitely have a good shot at Best Blues And Roots Album, unless Mama Kin causes a surprise upset.

Best Male Artist 

Dan Sultan - Killer Under A Blood Moon (Liberation Records)
Dean Lewis - Be Alright (Island Records Australia/Universal Music Australia)
Gurrumul - Djarimirri (Child of the Rainbow) (SFM/MGM)
Troye Sivan - Bloom (EMI)
Vance Joy - Nation Of Two (Liberation Records)

Who will win? Troye Sivan

Who should win? Gurrumul

Why? Honestly, Troye Sivan’s shiny but emotional pop definitely deserves a shot at Best Male Artist, and it’s probably going to be the only category, if any, that the young’n may take out. He’s up against the late Gurrumul, who, if he doesn’t receive Album Of The Year, will likely deservedly take out Best Male Artist. 

While Dan Sultan’s EP Killer Under A Blood Moon is excellent, it’s probably only likely to take out Best Adult Contemporary Album if anything at all. Sultan won Best Male Artist back in 2010 for his second album 2009’s Get Out While You Can, as well as Best Blues And Roots Album. Then in 2014 and 2017 he was nominated for Best Male Artist again for his EP Blackbird and then his third album Killer, but lost each time, although managed to pick up Best Rock Album for Blackbird. 

Dean Lewis hasn’t even released a debut record yet, but he’s still up against all these heavyweights in the Australian scene with just a single – he can’t win against them, but it’s a feat nonetheless. It’s unlikely to be the year Lewis scores his first ARIA; after being nominated last year for Best Pop Release and Breakthrough Artist for single Waves, he could surprise and score Best Pop Release, but that seems like a long shot against Amy Shark.

Finally Vance Joy rounds out the category, who’ll probably lose both this to Sivan or Gurrumul, and Adult Contemporary to Dan Sultan. Joy already has a Best Male Artist in his trophy case thanks to his 2015 win for his catchy 2014 debut Dream Your Life Away. This is his third nomination in this category, after his 2015 win, and losses in 2014 and 2017 for singles Mess Is Mine and Lay It On Me. 

Best Group

5 Seconds Of Summer - Youngblood (Capitol UK/EMI)
DMA’S- For Now (I OH YOU)
Peking Duk - Fire (Sony Music)
PNAU - Go Bang (etcetc Music)
RÜFÜS DU SOL - No Place (Sony Music)

Who will win? 5 Seconds Of Summer

Who should win? PNAU

Why? It seems reasonably likely that 5 Seconds Of Summer will take out Best Group, based on commercial performance alone, Youngblood easily climbing to #1 on the ARIA charts earlier this year. Against RÜFÜS DU SOL and Peking Duk singles, a PNAU record that can’t win Album Of The Year and DMA’S second effort, they’ve got a really good shot at ARIA glory with their third record. Their self-titled debut lost out in this category back in 2014, as did their live record LiveSOS in 2015. Considering they always win the publicly cited categories like Song Of The Year and Best Australian Live Act, it would be a snub for the panel to ignore their obvious popularity. 

Still, it feels like if you think PNAU has one of the top albums of the year, compared to 5SOS, then maybe their comeback record should nab this spot. They’ll probably lose Album Of The Year against Amy Shark or Gurrumul, so throw them a bone and give them this one? 

DMA’S second effort simply isn’t as solid as their debut, Hills End, which lost Breakthrough Artist to Montaigne’s superior debut in 2016. This year, they don’t really have a shot at Best Rock Album against Courtney Barnett and Camp Cope. Considering they’re up against Album Of The Year nominees PNAU for Best Group, it doesn’t seem like this year will be the year the Britpop-esque lads take home their first ARIA. 

Meanwhile, Peking Duk and RÜFÜS DU SOL each feel like they’re at a disadvantage against full records from their three competitors. While each of their songs is fun and undoubtedly popular, again, they don’t seem to have the same level of success as 5SOS or the technical skill of PNAU. Both are likely to lose Best Dance Release to PNAU as well, even after Peking Duk won the category in 2014 for single High, and RÜFÜS did the same in 2015 for single You Were Right. 

Best Independent Release

 Angus & Julia Stone - Snow (Angus & Julia Stone Pty Ltd/EMI)
 Courtney Barnett - Tell Me How You Really Feel (Milk! Records/Remote Control Records)
 DMA’S - For Now (I OH YOU)
 Gurrumul - Djarimirri (Child Of The Rainbow) (SFM/MGM)
 PNAU - Go Bang (etcetc Music)

Who will win? Courtney Barnett - Tell Me How You Really Feel 

Who should win? Courtney Barnett - Tell Me How You Really Feel 

Why? Barnett deserves to take out this category because she’s destined to lose out to very strong competitors also up for Best Female Artist and Album Of The Year. This category isn’t half as strong as though, even though it impressively shows that more than half of the Album Of The Year nominees are independent artists. Gurrumul could possibly take out this category as well, especially if he doesn’t manage to beat out Dan Sultan for Best Male Artist.

Angus & Julia Stone won two ARIAs in 2010 for their second record, Down The Way, including the top prize of Album Of The Year, after losing Best Blues And Roots Album for 2007’s A Book Like This and missing out on Best Rock Album for 2014’s self-titled record. They’re a duo that jumps across categories, this year again vying for Best Blues And Roots up against the formidable Tash Sultana. Snow, the band’s fourth effort, just doesn’t have the independent charm of Barnett’s or the lyrical and musical heft.

DMA’S For Now is a worthy but not exactly boundary-breaking follow-up to all the hype of their 2016 debut, Hills End. The catchy dance of PNAU's return after six years also just doesn’t have the darkness and heart to really compete against Barnett or Gurrumul.