Film Carew's 2014 Oscar Preview

The Oscar nominations are here. Huzzah! Let's bullet-point this sucker:

• American Hustle and Gravity got 10 nominations, 12 Years A Slave nine. Disco! Space! Slavery!

• John Williams scored - get this - his 49th nomination for Best Original Score for The Book Thief, which you should very much never see.

• Woody Allen received his 24th screenwriting nomination for Blue Jasmine, proving the Oscars exist in a parallel world in which Woody Allen isn't the world's most overrated filmmaker.

• Meryl Streep received her 18th nomination for pretending to be drunk in a bad cancer hair-piece in August: Osage County, one of the most noxious films of the year.

• 84-year-old June Squibb is the third-oldest acting nominee ever.

• James Gandolfini wasn't nominated for his endearing work in Enough Said, proving that dying isn't the shortest path to Oscar glory.

• Tom Hanks somehow wasn't nominated for portraying Walt Disney as a mystical motion-picture healer with daddy issues in Saving Mr. Banks, nor for embodying the American spirit (USA! USA! etc.) in Captain Phillips. He needs to reunite with Wilson.

• August: Osage County received two nominations (for Streep and Roberts), Saving Mr. Banks and Mandela: A Long Walk To Freedom each got one nomination (for music), and Lee Daniels' The Butler got none, proving that even the most fragrant pieces of Oscar bait can be ignored by the Academy. When, you know, they're not very good.

• Martin Scorsese received his eighth Best Director nomination for The Wolf Of Wall Street, a film that can be aptly described as 'Scorsese-esque'.

• Alfonso Cuarón (as producer/director/editor) and Spike Jonze (as producer/writer/songwriter) each got three personal nominations for their great, great work with Gravity and Her.

• David O. Russell's Oscar reign continued apace: his last three movies have garnered best film/director nods, and produced 11 acting nominations; with both Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle landing someone in all four actor categories.

Now, let's break it down, category by category:

12 Years A Slave

Best Motion Picture Of The Year

12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf Of Wall Street

Who Got Snubbed: For fans of unintentional comedy: Lee Daniels' Lee Daniels' The Butler. I love it when the Oscars attempt to tell us that pieces-of-cinematic-shit like Crash, The Blind Side, and Precious: Based On the Novel “Push” By Sapphire aren't preposterous parades of borderline-racist stereotyping, but important conversations on race. Lee Daniels' The Butler was to be this year's piece-of-cinematic-shit floating in the Oscar's great motion-picture toilet bowl; sadly, it wasn't to be.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: Asghar Farhadi's The Past sure would've looked great here. And Her sure does.

Who We'd Like To Win: Her is one of the truly great films of this decade, an exquisite portrait of the existential alienation of the technological now. Given that, there's no way it'll actually win an Oscar.

Who Will Actually Win: 12 Years A Slave whips its way into history.

The Wolf Of Wall Street

Best Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role

Christian Bale for American Hustle
Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf Of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years A Slave
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Who Got Snubbed: Old people! Tom Hanks and Robert Redford were long-feted Oscar front-runners for their respective men-at-sea-survivin' performances (in Captain Phillips and All Is Lost, respectively), but neither was nominated. Fellow old person Bruce Dern - who worked the circuit like nobody's business in the lead-up - made the cut, however.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: Christos Stergiogiou in The Eternal Return Of Antonis Paraskevas. Look that shit up, Oscar voters!

Who We'd Like To Win: Matty Mac is utterly is wild, exhilarating, and batshit charismatic in Dallas Buyers Club. Consider it a two-decades-later apologia for never honouring his work as Wooderson in Dazed & Confused!

Who Will Actually Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor. His performance largely involved grimly watching people get whipped, but how else can Academy voters end racism forever?

Blue Jasmine

Best Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role

Amy Adams for American Hustle
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock for Gravity
Judi Dench for Philomena
Meryl Streep for August: Osage County

Who Got Snubbed: Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks. Hollywood was somehow not seduced by John Lee Hancock's flattering potrait of big-studio-filmmaking, but Thompson was brilliant in it. Like Blanchett, she was the best thing in an otherwise-forgettable film.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: Adèle Exarchopoulos in Blue Is The Warmest Colour is a revelation; and previous nominees Bérénico Bejo (in The Past) and Juliette Binoche (Camille Claudel 1915) each did profound, troubling work at the centre of their dark dramas. Or if that's too much French-ness for these All-American awards: Greta Gerwig in Frances Ha, Gaby Hoffmann in Crystal Fairy & The Magical Cactus And 2012, and Olivia Wilde in Drinking Buddies all took what could've been minor indie-comedies and gave them real soul. Then there's Julie Delpy in Before Midnight, Elle Fanning in Ginger & Rosa (which was probably Oscar-eligible last-year, but, holy fuck, have you seen her in that film?), Donia Maher in Coming Forth By Day, etc.etc. Anyone but that phoney-baloney Streep smashing plates or Sandy B. and her fucking dead daughter.

Who We'd Like To Win: Call me un-Australian, but Adams was awesome in American Hustle.

Who Will Actually Win: Fire up the embarrassingly-patriotic media coverage: Our Cate.

Dallas Buyers Club

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role

Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
Jonah Hill for The Wolf Of Wall Street
Michael Fassbender for 12 Years A Slave
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

Who Got Snubbed: The world's saying Daniel Brühl in Rush, I guess, but given he was the co-lead, the Oscars saved themselves added embarrassment (see Julia Roberts' support, below) with his absence. But, gladly, this is far-and-away the most interesting gang out of the acting categories. Of course, it could've been far more interesting if it included...

Dream Film Carew Nominee: James Franco in Spring Breakers. The greatest American screen performance of the year and the Academy ran scared. He went to different planets in that motherfucker.

Who We'd Like To Win: Abdi was amazing as screen debutant; Fassbender gave 12 Years' most complex, magnetic performance; and Jonah Hill's false-teeth and Bradley Cooper's perm deserve their own nominations. Anyone really, but probably least of all...

Who Will Actually Win: Jared Leto. It's funny that the lead singer of 30 Seconds To Mars will win, but let's take stock: in an important issue-movie, he's playing a transgender junkie dying from AIDS. Give him the golden dildo already!

August: Osage County

Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role

Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
June Squibb for Nebraska

Who Got Snubbed: Well, common-sense, for starters: Julia Roberts PLAYS THE PRINCIPLE FUCKING CHARACTER in August: Oscar Cunts; until the Weinstein Campaign Machine sank millions into convincing voters she actually didn't. And also: Oprah! Somehow the matriarch of Black America couldn't rustle up the votes.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: Aïssa Maïga for Mood Indigo. Although given her role was almost entirely chopped out of the depressing 90-minute wide-release cut, maybe: Léa Seydoux for either Sister or Blue Is The Warmest Colour. Or both.

Who We'd Like To Win: Given Jennifer Lawrence seems all-too-likely to win, let us rejoice that her her American Hustle turn was hilarious and amazing; a gonzo screwball gambit that perfectly tapped into Russell's manic energy.

Who Will Actually Win: Lawrence again, if only in hopes she trips.

Gravity

Best Achievement In Directing

Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
Steve McQueen for 12 Years A Slave
Alexander Payne for Nebraska
David O. Russell for American Hustle
Martin Scorsese for The Wolf Of Wall Street

Who Got Snubbed: Spike Jonze. Michel Gondry. Ari Folman. Shane Carruth. Terrence Malick. Paolo Sorrentino. Denis Côté. Asghar Farhadi. etc.etc. Every year this category is weird to me: Payne and Russell are fine filmmakers, but the best thing about their films is never the direction; as was the case with both Nebraska and American Hustle. Unless the category is Best Achievement in Amy Adams Sideboobs, then Russell was on-point. And what is it with David O. and this category? Like, last year Russell was somehow decreed a better director than Paul Thomas Fucking Anderson. My head hurts.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: Andrew Bujalski for Computer Chess. Or, hell, Véréna Paravel and Lucien Castaing-Taylor for Leviathan. Who says documentaries can't be amazingly-photographed?

Who We'd Like To Win: Steve McQueen. For Hunger, five years ago. This year, for his least-interesting film? Not as much.

Who Will Actually Win: Cuarón's 17-minute opening 'take' (are digitally-composited sequences one take if there's no edit?) and visions-of-space wonder will be hard to top. But how will the Oscars be able to single-handedly achieve national Closure from the spectre of slavery if they don't whip that statue at McQueen?

Her

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska

Who Got Snubbed: Inside Llewyn Davis. The Coens' are usually all over the Oscars, but this year their fascinatingly-structured film was overlooked for the far-more-generically-written Dallas Buyers Club and more Woody Allen jokes about lower-class guidos.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: Her. Which was actually nominated! Should I feel creeped out?

Who We'd Like To Win: Her. For fuck's sake, give Spike Jonze the thing already!

Who Will Actually Win: Her. Maybe like for realz. This was the only category the greatest American film of the 21st century, Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind, won a decade ago. Her is so good even the Oscars may have to acknowledge it.

Philomena

Best Writing, Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published

12 Years A Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf Of Wall Street

Who Got Snubbed: Theoretically August: Osage County, but have you seen that fucking thing?

Dream Film Carew Nominee: Ari Folman for The Congress (adapted from Stanislaw Lem's The Futurological Congress) and/or Luc Bossi and Michel Gondry for Mood Indigo (adapted from Boris Vian's Froth On The Daydream). I'm a sucker for writers attempting to adapt the unadaptable; especially when their films end up looking like our dreams.

Who We'd Like To Win: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Bubblegum Hawke for Before Midnight. God bless them and everything they've done together across two decades.

Who Will Actually Win: 12 Years A Slave. Take that, Slavery!

The Wind Rises

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

Who Got Snubbed: It would've been bananas if A Letter To Momo had been nominated, but it was charming to see it even in the conversation.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: I'm sure there's some arcane rule that says that Ari Folman's The Congress can't be nominated because it's half-live-action, but like an '80s action-movie cop, I don't play by the book!

Who We'd Like To Win: The Wind Rises. Would it be a career-retrospective award for the retiring Hayao Miyazaki? Absolutely! But that would be all too well deserved for the greatest director of animation ever.

Who Will Actually Win: Frozen or Despicable Me 2. This award was created to thank Pixar for making so many people in Hollywood so much money, and these two films sure did that.

The Broken Circle Breakdown

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)

Who Got Snubbed: The Past! Good lord, did it get snubbed. One must also remember the logic-defying red-tape regulations at play here: the Academy accepts a single nomination from the official film body of each country. So, if you're feeling outraged that Blue Is The Warmest Colour couldn't even score a nomination, remember France decided to put forth the generic artist-biopic Renoir.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: If we're to stick to films actually submitted: Klebo Mendonça Filho's Neighbouring Sounds, a meticulously-directed, astonishingly-sound-designed portrait of the tension of high-density urban living; or Ektoras Lygizos' Boy Eating The Bird's Food, stark socio-realism from the starving frontlines of the Greek Economic Collapse. Or, y'know, just The Past, Asghar Farhadi's latest masterwork in a filmography full of them.

Who We'd Like To Win: A win for Omar would be intriguing given the Academy once used to refuse to recognise Palestine as an independent sovereign entity.

Who Will Actually Win: The Hunt. It stars television's Hannibal!

The Act Of Killing

Best Documentary

20 Feet From Stardom
The Act Of Killing
Cutie & The Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square

Who Got Snubbed: Stories We Tell. Sarah Polley's film about filmmaking was one part family drama, two-parts meta-film commentary on the human need to turn experiences into anecdotes, and memories into movies.

Dream Film Carew Nominee: Leviathan. Screw Gravity: this was the in-the-cinemas visual spectacle of 2013.

Who We'd Like To Win: The Act Of Killing is an astonishing piece of social activism that doubles as a bizarre, surreal portrait of the banality of evil and the cultural influence of cinema. It's documentary filmmaking at its most audacious, surprising, and profound.

Who Will Actually Win: 20 Feet From Stardom. A generic bit of VH1 fodder about tedious rock'n'roll clichés? Sounds all too perfect for the Oscars.