Get Frocked: We Predict Tonight's ARIA Award Winners

Predictions for the first six categories were originally published in the November issue of The Music. Pick up a copy of it on the street now or head here to read it online.

Album Of The Year 

Dean Lewis - A Place We Knew; Hilltop Hoods - The Great Expanse; RÜFÜS DU SOL - Solace; The Teskey Brothers - Run Home Slow; Thelma Plum - Better In Blak

Who will win? Dean Lewis

Who we think should win? Thelma Plum

First awarded in 1987, the coveted Album Of The Year category looks to recognise excellence, innovation and achievement. Trailing behind Byron-based wunderkind Tones & I, this year both Hilltop Hoods and The Teskey Brothers picked up an impressive seven nominations each for their respective records. It puts them in good stead for the big one - it’s also the first time either have been nominated in the category - but Dean Lewis’ ARIA #1, A Place We Knew, is the safe bet here.

The Australian singer-songwriter has made waves across the country since the release of his 2016 single of the same name but 2019 sees the rest of the world paying attention. In July this year, Lewis hit one billion streams for the lead single off A Place We Knew, Be Alright. Moreover, he went double Platinum in Australia and played everywhere from Splendour to Ellen. It all bodes well. 

Close on his tail are Adelaide’s Hilltop Hoods. They’ve had a huge year and have the fanbase to back it up. If they don’t nab Album Of The Year, the hip hop trio are well placed for Best Group and Best Hip Hop Release. Unfortunately for The Teskey Brothers, it’ll be a case of ‘always a bridesmaid, never a bride’. Their best chance on the night is to take out Blues & Roots.

RÜFÜS DU SOL shouldn’t be a complete write-off, especially considering Solace peaked at #2 on the ARIA charts and soared up the Dance/Electronic chart in the US, landing at #6. However, first out the gate, we’re doubtful they can go the full distance back on home soil. Solace’s release last October might be a distant memory for the Voting Academy who cast their votes in September this year and the group have had their focus overseas. Thelma Plum’s Better In Blak, our pick of the category for its brutal, heart-on-its-sleeve honesty, seems unlikely to make a dent in proceedings other than its win for Best Cover Art. Plum shines over added Paul power - both McCartney and Kelly feature on the album - arriving with a debut that's confident and assured, making her one of the most exciting voices in the industry. Academy, take note.

Best Male Artist

Dean Lewis - A Place We Knew; Guy Sebastian - Choir; Hayden James - Between Us; Matt Corby - Rainbow Valley; Paul Kelly - Nature 

Who will win? Dean Lewis

Who we think should win? Paul Kelly

Dean Lewis lost all the categories he was up for at the 2018 ceremony but it looks like he’ll Be Alright in 2019. Especially when you consider ARIA’s propensity to award Best Album and Best Artist to the same person. 

As for the rest of the nominees, we can probably rule out Paul Kelly considering he’s won the award previously (2017, 1998 and 1997). This year sees the seminal Australian musician pick up his 18th nomination in the category and if he were to add it to his collection, he’d overtake Diesel, John Farnham and Alex Lloyd to hold the record for most wins here. It would be a deserving record for the beloved songwriter - whose bold work on Nature sees him putting poems from the likes of Sylvia Plath, Dylan Thomas and Gerard Manley Hopkins to music. He knows to celebrate the little things. Triple j fave Matt Corby nabs his third nomination in the category and it's the first we’ve seen for dark horse Hayden James. Although neither look likely for the win, between us, the future looks bright. 

The only artist likely to give Lewis a race for the title is Guy Sebastian - this year sees the former Australian Idol winner pick up his seventh nomination in a category he’s never won. What’s that saying again? Seventh time's a charm? Might be worth putting a combination bet down. 

Best Female Artist

Amy Shark - Mess Her Up; Jessica Mauboy - Little Things; Julia Jacklin - Crushing; Thelma Plum - Better In Blak; Tones & I - Dance Monkey 

Who will win? Tones & I

Who we think should win? Julia Jacklin

If you’ve managed to escape the Dance Monkey frenzy you must be living under the proverbial rock. With the most nominations of any artist, Tones & I looks to take a clean sweep of her categories. Even considering Toni Watson’s record-breaking run on the charts happened post nominations, this burgeoning artist’s unique voice burrowed its way into the nation’s collective consciousness long before votes were cast in September.

It means Jessica Mauboy, who won the award in 2013, will find her eighth nomination in the category fruitless. She’s fast approaching the legendary Kylie Minogue who holds 14 nominations for Best Female Artist, only winning once.

Amy Shark is in for a shot too. Picking up Best Female Artist in 2018, the Academy might follow the category’s trend and go two for two. This means Plum and Julia Jacklin, who's album is as crushing as its title suggests and gets our vote, will have to look elsewhere for the shiny metal statue. 

Best Group

5 Seconds Of Summer - Easier; Birds Of Tokyo - Good Lord; Hilltop Hoods - The Great Expanse; RÜFÜS DU SOL - Solace; The Teskey Brothers - Run Home Slow

Who will win? Hilltop Hoods

Who we think should win? The Teskey Brothers

Before we begin, can we have a moment for the women who were snubbed in this category? We didn’t realise a prerequisite for success as a group was being a man? Do better, Voting Academy.

2019 marks the fourth nomination in Best Group for 5SOS, Hilltop Hoods and Birds Of Tokyo. 5SOS took it out last year and it’s unlikely they’ll back it up with a single that peaked at #12 on the charts - the last time a group took it out two years in a row was The Cruel Sea in 1994.

A big year on home turf for Hilltop Hoods - filling in for Chance The Rapper at Splendour In The Grass, supporting Eminem’s huge stadium romp and their very own arena tour - could see them first across the line here, nipping The Teskey Brothers and RÜFÜS DU SOL’s chances in the bud. Especially considering it seems unlikely for any of the artists nominated here to pick up Album Of The Year. Despite the gravity of its lyrics, Birds Of Tokyo’s single Good Lord won’t be enough to secure this category against the Album Of The Year nominees. Oozing with grit and soul, Run Home Slow, sees a band on form, making them our pick. Even with a voice that good, The Teskey Brothers play off each other's strengths to deliver an even stronger album.

Breakthrough Artist

G Flip - About Us; Stella Donnelly - Beware Of The Dogs; The Teskey Brothers - Run Home Slow; Thelma Plum - Better In Blak; Tones & I - Dance Monkey

Who will win? Tones & I

Who we think should win? Stella Donnelly

It’s probable Tones & I will clean up this year, with a single no less, but the four full-length records nominated here are all worthy of the title. And none more so than Stella Donnelly’s Beware Of The Dogs. 

Her intelligent songwriting and important storytelling make Beware Of The Dogs one of this year’s best releases and Donnelly’s voice seems vital in the Australian music landscape. Album Of The Year nominees Thelma Plum, with her Paul McCartney-approved Better In Blak, and The Teskey Brothers, for Run Home Slow, will also come up empty-handed. 

That’s not to say Dance Monkey isn’t deserving - none of us can remember a time in which an Australian artist blew up as fast as Watson - and when it comes to breaking through, she pretty much wrote the manual. If she is to win, Watson will follow in Ruel’s footsteps - he too was the only artist nominated last year without an album out and took the title.

Best Independent Release 

Angie McMahon - Salt; G Flip - About Us; Julia Jacklin - Crushing; The Teskey Brothers - Run Home Slow; Tones & I - The Kids Are Coming

Who will win? Tones & I

Who we think should win? Julia Jacklin

So The Teskey Brothers don’t get suited and booted for no reason, they could very easily take home Best Independent Release for Run Home Slow but Best Blues & Roots Album seems more likely for the four-piece. And while Tones & I’s inclusion had us raising our eyebrows and consulting the category’s criteria sheet, you’d be daft to make any other call. Even if The Kids Are Coming just made it into the mix with a 30 August release date. 

Elsewhere it’s a strong category for women, Jacklin and Angie McMahon releasing two of the year’s best records. They are the two that stand out with the most independent charm. Jacklin picked up six nominations for Crushing, her intimate and revealing follow-up to 2016’s Don’t Let The Kids Win, but her best chance to capitalise is in the Adult Contemporary category. Salt too is an impressive debut from McMahon worthy of the title but she might have to make do with the prestigious Grulke Prize for Developing Non-US Act she was awarded at SXSW. 

And the genre categories...

Best Pop Release

Amy Shark - Mess Her Up; Dean Lewis - A Place We Knew; Guy Sebastian - Choir; Thelma Plum - Better In Blak; Tones & I - Dance Monkey

Who will win? Tones & I

Who we think should win? Tones & I

Listen to Dance Monkey, try to get that hook out of your head and then come and tell us who you think should win Best Pop Release.

Best Dance Release

Dom Dolla - Take It; FISHER - You Little Beauty; Peking Duk & Jack River - Sugar; PNAU - Solid Gold; RÜFÜS DU SOL - Solace 

Who will win? RÜFÜS DU SOL

Who we think should win? RÜFÜS DU SOL

Considering PNAU have won the category the previous two years, it seems likely the Judging School will mix it up in 2019. And while FISHER stands a chance, after being overlooked in the categories chosen by the wider Voting Academy, RÜFÜS DU SOL seem likely to walk away with Best Dance Release. And deservedly so, Solace saw the band make it BIG in the States and even nabbed them a Grammy nod. 

Best Hip Hop Release

Baker Boy - Cool As Hell; Hilltop Hoods - The Great Expanse; Illy - Then What; Sampa The Great - Final Form; Tkay Maidza - Awake feat JPEGMAFIA

Who will win? Hilltop Hoods

Who we think should win? Sampa The Great

While Sampa is indeed Great, historically you can't go past Hilltop Hoods here. First presented in 2004 as Best Urban Release, the Hoods have won it a whopping seven times from seven nominations.  

Best Soul/R&B Release

Kaiit - Miss Shiney; Matt Corby - Rainbow Valley; Adrian Eagle - AOK; Genesis Owusu - WUTD + Vultures; Tash Sultana - Can't Buy Happiness

Who will win? Tash Sultana 

Who we think should win? Kaiit

Can't Buy Happiness is Tash Sultana's first new music since the global phenomenon that was Flow State and would be a very deserving winner of the new Soul/R&B category. You just can't beat that kind of international success story but Kaiit's fresh sound does have the Jill Scott tick of approval...

Best Country Album

Charlie Collins - Snowpine; Felicity Urquhart - Frozen Rabbit; Lee Kernaghan - Backroad Nation; Morgan Evans - Things We Drink To; Sara Storer - Raindance

Who will win? Morgan Evans

Who we think should win? Charlie Collins

With the big-hitters Kasey Chambers, Troy Casser-Daley and Keith Urban missing this year, it seems like prime time to let industry darling Morgan Evans swoop in and pick up Best Country Album. He'll be drinking to that no doubt. 

Best Rock Album

Amyl & The Sniffers - Amyl & The Sniffers; Holy Holy - My Own Pool Of Light; Jimmy Barnes - My Criminal Record; Midnight Oil - Armistice Day: Live at The Domain, Sydney; Skegss - My Own Mess

Who will win? Jimmy Barnes

Who we think should win? Amyl & The Sniffers

Melbourne's Amyl & The Sniffers have had a ripper year. But despite making noise in all the right places, they might have to make do with their Gucci campaigns because, really, this is a two-way race between Barnsey and Garrett. And while Midnight Oil have never won the Rock category - it was introduced in 1999 - we're not sure whether a live album will do it for them.  

Best Hard Rock/Heavy Metal Album

Clowns - Nature/Nurture; Dead Letter Circus - Dead Letter Circus; DZ Deathrays - Positive Rising: Part 1; King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard - Infest The Rats’ Nest; Northlane - Alien 

Who will win? Northlane

Who we think should win? Clowns

King Gizz caused quite a stir in the metal community when they won Best Hard Rock/Heavy Metal Album in 2016. Considering they're also up for Blues & Roots (albeit for a different title), it'll come as a surprise if they pick it up again. Our choice here is Clowns for the epic Nature/Nurture but you can't go past Northlane for the ferocious and personal LP that is Alien - it'll be held as a benchmark for Australian metal for years to come. 

Best Blues & Roots Album

Dan Sultan - Aviary Takes; John Butler Trio - HOME; King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard - Fishing For Fishies; Paul Kelly - Live At Sydney Opera House; The Teskey Brothers - Run Home Slow

Who will win? The Teskey Brothers 

Who we think should win? The Teskey Brothers

They'll be overlooked elsewhere so if The Teskey Brothers don't win this, we'll have failed at this whole predictions thing. 

Best Adult Contemporary Album

Julia Jacklin - Crushing; Paul Kelly - Nature; Samantha Jade - The Magic Of Christmas; Seeker Lover Keeper - Wild Seeds; The Paper Kites - On The Corner Where You Live

Who will win? Paul Kelly

Who we think should win? Julia Jacklin

Looking at voting trends here, Best Adult Contemporary Album is very much a male-dominated category. In case you didn't already know, all contemporary adults are men. And with that in mind, it looks Paul Kelly's for the taking.

As for the publicly voted awards...

The only category we have any hope of guessing here is:

Song Of The Year

5 Seconds Of Summer - Easier; Amy Shark - Mess Her Up; Birds Of Tokyo - Good Lord; Dean Lewis - 7 Minutes; Guy Sebastian - Choir; Hilltop Hoods - Leave Me Lonely; Kian - Waiting; Morgan Evans - Day Drunk; Ocean Alley - Confidence; Tones & I - Dance Monkey

Who will win? 5 Seconds Of Summer 

Who we think should win? Tones & I

Picking up the award last year, when you consider 5 Seconds Of Summer's fanbase, they're the obvious choice. As for who should win? We've already called 2019 the year of the dancing monkey and you really can't argue with Tones & I's success when it comes to choosing a song of the year.

The 2019 ARIA Awards will take place on Wednesday 27 November at The Star in Sydney.