And The Winner Is... Um...

29 November 2012 | 10:53 am | Staff Writer

It’s that time again, when we break out the crystal ball in an attempt to second guess the results of the 26th ARIA Awards. Will they better their average of previous years? Do you agree/disagree warmly/violently? Read on.

With the ARIA Fine Arts and Artisan Award categories already announced, as are this year's inductees into the ARIA Hall of Fame, and a week of ARIA-associated events leading up to the big night, this year being held in the Sydney Entertainment Centre on Thursday 29 November, the ARIA Awards are looking like one of the biggest nights yet for Australian music. Plus Hilltop Hoods, Jessica Mauboy, 360, The Temper Trap, The Jezabels, Guy Sebastian, Kimbra, Missy Higgins and international guest Taylor Swift will be performing.

The fact that since last year's awards, we've seen six Australian singles and eight Australian albums top the national ARIA charts and that 93 Australian singles, albums and DVDs attain gold, platinum or multi-platinum status, goes to show not just how healthy Australia's music industry is right now, but also how much more Australians are embracing their own artists. That's been recognised by making Song Of The Year, Best International Artist, Best Australian Live Act and Best Video publicly-voted categories. So here are our thoughts on this year's field of contenders.

BEST DANCE RELEASE

Nominees: Havana BrownWhen The Lights Go Out; HermitudeHyperparadise; Ivan Gough & Feenixpawl feat Georgi KayIn My Mind; Knife PartyRage Valley; and Sneaky Sound SystemFrom Here To Anywhere
The consensus seems to be that while both Havana Brown and Knife Party have been scoring massively overseas, and fans were obviously pleased to see Sneaky Sound System back in contention while In My Mind was a significant club banger, Hermitude would have the numbers in the local context. Even so, the votes were split so evenly that the eventual swing is reflected below.
Who will win? Havana Brown
Who should win? Hermitude

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BEST COUNTRY ALBUM

Nominees: Beccy ColeSongs And Pictures; Catherine BrittAlways Never Enough; McAlister KempCountry Proud; The McClymontsTwo Worlds Collide; and Troy Cassar-DaleyHome
A strong field, it has to be between the old favourite Troy Cassar-Daley and the all-grown-up Catherine Britt. Quite apart from a very solid album Britt has this year aligned herself with local indie icon Tim Rogers, which has alerted a few of his fans to her charms, but will that newly-aware contingent be enough to pull her across the line?
Who will win? Troy Cassar-Daley
Who should win? Catherine Britt

BEST URBAN ALBUM

Nominees: 360Falling & Flying; Hilltop HoodsDrinking From The Sun; KatalystDeep Impressions; The BamboosMedicine Man; and The HerdFuture Shade

As tribally loyal as Hilltop Hoods' fans are – and for all the power in not only their latest album but also their innovative DVD releases – no one can deny that 2012 has been 360's year. Whether that's enough to guarantee he gets the pointy thingie is down to whether the sales figures for each have been uppermost in the minds of the ARIA voters associated with labels, as against genuine industry fans. While The Bamboos are worthy of nomination, they are, of course, soul funksters rather than an urban act, and then the return of The Herd with such a quality album should count for something.
Who will win? 360
Who should win? Hilltop Hoods/The Herd

BEST ROCK ALBUM

Nominees: Children CollideMonument; Cold ChiselNo Plans; Oh MercyDeep Heat; The JezabelsPrisoner; and The Temper TrapThe Temper Trap
There's an inevitable fuzziness about what is meant by rock these days, at least in terms of the nominees. While Children Collide and Cold Chisel, two generations apart, are categorically rock, the others are rather more dabblers; their indie atmospheric/pop, or in the case of Oh Mercy, almost funk, nods at rather than embraces the rock. Within the voting community there's bound to be something of a generational split between Children Collide and sentimental favourites Cold Chisel, but the incredible number of fans, more than 270,000, who flocked to last year's ridiculously successful Light The Nitro national tour didn't follow suit with Chisel's new album, No Plans. Similarly, The Temper Trap didn't do the figures of their first album, despite it being a far stronger record. Then again, The Jezabels have surprised us all over the years.
Who will win? Cold Chisel
Who should win? The Jezabels

BEST POP RELEASE

Nominees: GotyeMaking Mirrors; Guy SebastianBattle Scars; Jessica MauboyGotcha; KimbraVows; and San CiscoAwkward

The only thing possibly working against Gotye dominating in this category, considering his unprecedented international success, is the fact that his album was, in ARIA terms, released so long ago, at the beginning of the period covered in this year's nominations. Kimbra's association with Gotye courtesy the phenomenally successful Somebody That I Used To Know hasn't done her career any harm either, and she followed it up with an equally successful album of her own, so she has to be a contender. Guy Sebastian has certainly worked hard to overcome the taint of Australian Idol and continues to make solid albums happily received by a loyal fanbase. He's won plenty of audience-voted and sales-based awards, but he finds the industry-voted one tougher and, up against either Gotye or Kimbra, it's unlikely he will this year. As for Jessica Mauboy, always popular, this record is, of course, lifted from the soundtrack of the equally popular feature film, The Sapphires, so can it really be credited as a her release per se?
Who will win? Gotye
Who should win? Gotye

BEST HARD ROCK/HEAVY METAL ALBUM

Nominees: Buried In VeronaNotorious; DZ DeathraysBloodstreams; Frenzal RhombSmoko At The Pet Food Factory; House Vs HurricaneCrooked Teeth; and Sleepmakeswaves...and so we destroyed everything
There was a time this was Cold Chisel's natural category. Anyway, while Sleepmakeswaves is probably the best album in terms of innovative new sounds, textures and compositions, it's neither hard rock nor heavy metal, and we're sure the sentimental favourites are sufficiently gobsmacked to have got this far to care whether they win. It's got to be a contest between the hard rock DZ Deathrays, the defiantly metal Buried In Verona and House Vs Hurricane. DZ Deathrays are certainly the buzz band at the moment.
Who will win? DZ Deathrays
Who should win? Buried In Verona/House Vs Hurricane

BEST BLUES & ROOTS ALBUM

Nominees: Angus StoneBroken Brights; Jeff LangCarried In Mind; Lanie LaneTo The Horses; Mia DysonThe Moment; and Paul Green & The Other ColoursBehind The Stars
Yet another strong field of essentially seasoned troopers contesting this category, apart from the incredibly hip and stylish Lane, whose face and voice have been everywhere this past year. Stone alone, while he's delivered a great album, probably entered the field a little late. Lang, Greene and Dyson have been working the roots/blues field long and to a consistently high standard, and are probably truer representations of the category they're contesting but…
Who will win? Lanie Lane
Who should win? Mia Dyson

 

BEST ADULT CONTEMPORARY ALBUM

Nominees: Darren HayesSecret Codes And Battleships; HuskyForever So; Josh PykeOnly Sparrows; Katie Noonan & Karin SchauppSongs Of The Southern Skies; and Missy HigginsThe Ol' Razzle Dazzle

It's hard to imagine anyone standing a chance against the most popular “comeback” album of the year. Then again, Husky have been kicking some serious goals overseas and on a debut album at that, which must count for something. Though of course, Missy Higgins is back in Australia on her own massive national tour after and equally impressive run of dates across North America and she's got the numbers locally. Hayes had a big tour but he's relatively forgotten outside of a stalwart fanbase.
Who will win? Missy Higgins
Who should win? Missy Higgins/Husky

BEST INDEPENDENT RELEASE

Nominees: Dappled CitiesLake Air; Katie Noonan & Karin SchauppSongs Of The Southern Skies; San CiscoAwkward; The BamboosMedicine Man and The JezabelsPrisoner
Best Independent Artists both last and this year at that other awards night, the Jagermeister Independent Music Awards, The Jezabels are probably the band most likely to get the gong here, though the fact that Dappled Cities released their album just as voting for the ARIAs began could have worked in their favour.
Who will win? The Jezabels
Who should win? The Bamboos

BREAKTHROUGH ARTIST – RELEASE

Nominees: 360Falling & Flying; AlpineA Is For Alpine; Lanie LaneTo The Horses; Matt CorbyBrother; and San CiscoAwkward

This has to be a shoe-in for 360, aka Matt Colwell, who has gone through the roof this year, particularly live, selling out a ridiculous number of shows. Then again, Matt Corby has done phenomenally well himself, similarly selling out his indie gigs consistently, having built a career against the odds as an Australian Idol also-ran to prove himself a truly inspired songwriter, singer and performer with a unique style. Alpine are similarly unique.
Who will win? 360
Who should win? Alpine

BEST GROUP

Nominees: Boy & BearBig Man; Cold ChiselNo Plans; Hilltop HoodsDrinking From The Sun; The JezabelsPrisoner; and The Temper TrapThe Temper Trap
Last year of course was the year of Boy & Bear and this final single only really gets in this year because of its release date. Again, Cold Chisel would have to be the sentimental favourite and if voting was based on the success of a band live in concert last year's phenomenal Light The Nitro tour, on attendance figures alone, would get them across the line. But that's not going to happen. It's between Hilltop Hoods and The Temper Trap then. Can a hip hop group finally get up and win Best Group? It's the best shot in a long time – the only time even? Then again, The Jezabels could be the dark horse, coming in on the outside to take the prize. Then again, The Jezabels could split The Temper Trap vote. Hmm.
Who will win? The Jezabels
Who should win? The Temper Trap/Hilltop Hoods

BEST FEMALE ARTIST

Nominees: Jessica MauboyGotcha; KimbraVows; Lanie LaneTo The Horse; Missy HigginsThe Ol' Razzle Dazzle; and WashingtonInsomnia
A year ago Washington seemed to be everywhere, while this year, it's been Lanie Lane, but do either have the ergot of a resurrected, match-fit Missy Higgins? Jessica Mauboy meanwhile has the success of The Sapphires movie behind her as well. Kimbra of course has that international success and Gotye connection, but she's really a Kiwi isn't she? Not that that's ever stopped anyone, right Finn brothers? And she won last year, so would be unlikely to get a second nod so soon.
Who will win? Missy Higgins
Who should win? Kimbra/Missy Higgins

BEST MALE ARTIST

Nominees: 360Falling & Flying; Angus StoneBroken Brights; GotyeMaking Mirrors; Guy SebastianBattle Scars; Keith UrbanFor You; and Matt CorbyInto The Flame
Considering For You is the new track on a career retrospective best of, The Story So Far, you'd have to factor in the likelihood that, as good as Keith Urban is, his appearance in this category is more likely to have been influenced by his popular participation as a judge on The Voice than his merits musically and Nicole Kidman's handbag. Ultimately this has to be a battle royal between 360 and Gotye – rapper versus indie pop.
Who will win? Gotye
Who should win? 360

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Nominees: 360Falling & Flying; GotyeMaking Mirrors; Missy HigginsThe Ol' Razzle Dazzle; The JezabelsPrisoner; and The Temper TrapThe Temper Trap
Can the solo woman pull a rabbit out of the hat and the rug from under the men? The case has been made for each of these albums, great albums all, but it's probably unlikely The Jezabels or The Temper Trap have the numbers despite the outstanding quality of the albums. So again, it's 360 versus Gotye. Hey, that might make for quite an extraordinary album. And why not?
Who will win? Gotye
Who should win? The Jezabels

Of course, you, dear readers, will be deciding four categories yourselves. Perhaps you'd like to share your thoughts on who will and who should win in those publicly-voted categories. Just go to themusic.com.au and voice your opinion.

We grabbed 360, Missy Higgins and Dougy Mandagi of The Temper Trap for a bit of a chinwag in the lead up to the ARIAs.

How will you celebrate an ARIA win?
360:
I've been thinking that the ARIA celebrations are going to be like a final big night out for me, then I'm going to chill and stop partying for a while. So I plan to do exactly that.
Missy Higgins: If I win an ARIA this year I'll be celebrating with my good friend Butterfly Boucher, as she played such a huge role in the making of this album. I really couldn't have done it without her incredibly creative mind.
Dougy Mandagi (The Temper Trap): With my hot date for the night. My mum.

Have you got a shot in your respective categories?
360: I believe I have a shot in any of the awards that Gotye isn't in.
Missy Higgins: Probably not, I think I share my categories with Gotye so we all know what's gonna happen there! He absolutely deserves it though. 
Dougy Mandagi:
It's pretty tough competition but if I had to choose one category I'd go with Best Group.  

Where will you keep your ARIA(s) if you win?
360: I think I'm going to win two. So if I do, I will use those as the two front teeth of a monster that I am currently sculpting.
Missy Higgins: My mum keeps my other ARIAs in her kitchen so I'd give it to her, she'd be stoked!
Dougy Mandagi: It's too heavy to take back to London so I'll leave it here at my parent's place.

The ARIA red carpet - head down and walk straight in or stroll and enjoy the ambience?
360: Enjoy it while you can!
Missy Higgins: Ah, neither! I should probably stop and talk to some people sticking their microphones towards me, it's not a relaxing experience though!
Dougy Mandagi
: Neither. Last time it was more like walking through a gauntlet of interviews and photos.

Are you a person to have a speech ready on the night if you win, or will you wing it?
360: I get too nervous so I'll just wing it.
Missy Higgins: Oh, I would wing it I think. I'm not very good with prepared speeches. They make me much more nervous than just saying whatever comes to my head. I don't like it to be too thought out.
Dougy Mandagi:
Wing it.

Will someone scoop the pool this year or will the winners be evenly spread?
360: Gotye will win all his shit, again haha.
Missy Higgins: My bets are on 360 and Gotye.
Dougy Mandagi:
Gotye will probably win everything except "Most exotic looking lead singer of a rock band" which belongs to me.

Will you dress up or dress down for the ceremony?
360: I'll wear something classy and respectful I think.
Missy Higgins: Up, definitely up!
Dougy Mandagi: I like to make an effort. I'll be with mum and she's not gonna let me get away with looking like a bum.